Jeffrey D. Sachs
The 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1990, and 2005 is likely to
be the warmest ever. This year, we’ve gotten a taste of the many kinds of dangers
that lie ahead: more extreme hurricanes, massive droughts, forest fires, spreading
infectious diseases, and floods. The climate is changing, and more is yet to come.
The world’s governments will meet in Montreal at the end of November to plot the
next steps, including specific measures that the world could adopt if the Bush
administration abandoned its willful neglect of this critical issue.
Climate change is equated with “global warming,” but much more than warming is
involved. The rising concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is
leading to more extreme storms, higher-intensity hurricanes, rising ocean levels,
melting glaciers and ice sheets, droughts, floods and other climate changes. Even
the chemistry of the land and ocean is changing, with the ocean becoming more
acidic – thus threatening coral reefs – as a result of higher carbon dioxide.
The specific patterns of change are not known precisely, but the risks of continuing
on our current global course are widely appreciated. Yet the United States has
refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, which does little to change the long-term
course of events on the planet, since it calls for only small steps up to the year
2012.
Under the terms of the UN treaty on climate change, the signatories – virtually the
whole world - are to gather each year to discuss the treaty’s implementation. The
conference in Montreal - the 11th such meeting - should look beyond 2012, so that
the world gets onto a safe and sustainable long-term climate path.
The actions that are needed are difficult to introduce, because they go to the heart
of the world’s use of energy, particularly its use of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas),
which, when burned, release carbon dioxide – the key source of rising greenhouse
gases – into the atmosphere. Yet the world economy depends on fossil fuels, and
developing countries will need to use more, not less, of them as their economies
grow. Even if the world runs out of oil and gas in the coming years, coal will prove
to be plentiful, and solid coal can be converted at relatively low cost to liquid fuels
for automobiles and other uses.
Unfortunately, clean, renewable energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide,
such as wind power and geothermal power, are not yet sufficient. Solar power can
be produced on the required scale but is too expensive under current technologies.
Nuclear power is relatively cheap, and could be plentiful, but poses huge dangers
for increased proliferation of nuclear-weapons materials.
So: fossil fuels are plentiful, but harmful; renewable sources like wind are good for
the climate but not plentiful. Solar power is plentiful but not cheap. Nuclear power
is plentiful but not safe.
Improved technologies can offer a way out of this bind, but only if we think and act
ahead. There are two main kinds of technologies that look most promising. The
first is energy conservation through more fuel-efficient vehicles. New hybrid
automobiles, pioneered by Toyota, use both gasoline and electric power to boost
gasoline efficiency by approximately two-fold. A massive changeover to more fuel-
efficient vehicles would make a big difference, especially as the numbers of vehicles
on the road soars in China, India, and other developing countries.
The second big technology that could make a major difference is called “carbon
capture and storage.” The idea is to “capture” the carbon dioxide that is emitted in
power plants and other big factories when fossil fuels are burned, thereby
preventing it from entering the atmosphere. The captured carbon is then pumped
into underground storage sites such as empty oil fields and other suitable locations.
All of the key aspects of the technology – capturing the carbon dioxide, putting it
into pipelines for shipment, and then depositing it underground – have already
been demonstrated, but they have not yet been tried, and proven, on a large scale.
There is strong evidence, however, that it would not cost the world huge amounts
to undertake large-scale carbon capture and storage.
The problem is timing. The changeover of the world’s vehicles to hybrid and other
efficient technologies will take decades, not years. So will the changeover of power
plants to carbon capture and storage. If we procrastinate, the dangers posed by
climate change will confront us as we talk, debate, and plan. The world needs to
start acting soon - very soon - if it is to head off the major threats.
All major regions of the world will need to be involved. Today’s developing countries
are not yet major emitters of carbon dioxide, but with economic growth they will
become so. Therefore, all countries, both developed and developing, need to do
their part, with rich countries helping poor countries cover the financial costs of
adjustment.
Plenty of carbon dioxide will be emitted into the atmosphere as the world’s climate
negotiators fly to and from the Montreal meeting. Let’s press our governments to
make real progress when they meet; otherwise they will merely be adding to the
problem.
Jeffrey Sachs is Professor of Economics and Director of the Earth Institute at
Columbia University.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2005.
www.project-syndicate.org
